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Non-Farm Payrolls contributed to a volatile trading day last Friday, the report boasted an additional 216k jobs versus 171k expected. The data echoed the ADP employment change released a day prior also showing larger than expected growth in the US labour market. Ultimately, the added volatility did not push markets in any particular direction, most finishing the day almost exactly where they left off.
To put it mildly, stocks have not had a great start to 2024. The collective hangover from New Year revelry left most indices on unsure footing last week, the bullish optimism present at the end of last year completely failed to carry over into this one. A major culprit for this is the realisation that the world is not yet out of the woods with regards to inflation and that central banks around the globe may not be as ready to cut interest rates as previously assumed.
The Dollar Currency Index gained over one percentage point last week, which adequately illustrates the current state of the market. Unexpectedly strong employment data coupled with cautious wording from the Fed does not make for fertile grounds for stocks, or indeed much else. Even gold has failed to impress so far this year, content to wallow in mediocrity for now.
The big news this week arrives on Thursday in the form of CPI and inflation data courtesy of the Department of Labor Statistics. Those hoping for more imminent interest rate cuts will have their fingers crossed for low numbers.
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