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The time is almost upon us. In just a few days the Federal Reserve is expected to enact its first interest rate cut, an event that markets have been trying to price in all year. Odds changed over the weekend, with a larger 50 basis point cut now favoured by interest rate traders. The Dollar slid marginally on Friday and continued to do so this morning in Asia in light of shifting expectations. Gold on the other hand powered its way to a second consecutive record high on Friday after gaining another $20 an ounce.
Absolutely nothing on the economic calendar today, although it is worth mentioning that both Japanese and Chinese markets are closed, leading to bone dry liquidity early on. Retail sales and CPI figures make up the bulk of the economic data this week, but of course the main attraction is the FOMC meeting which starts on Wednesday. The major US indices enjoyed strong gains last week, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing just under their respective record highs, potentially paving the way for some big moves if markets don’t get the rate cut they expect. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also vote on their respective interest rate targets this week, but neither is expected to deviate from their present levels.
It all boils down to the Fed. Traders will be jostling for position ahead of the decision, which will no doubt remain the subject of intense speculation right down to the wire.
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